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In the face of unpredictability, we crave certainty. In times of unprecedented change, we hanker for stability. When everything seems different, we look for more of the same.
Nowhere do these very human biases show up more than in organisational forecasting, planning and decision-making. We are adapting to a world that is changing on multiple fronts, simultaneously. The map we took for granted in more stable times is no longer reliable.
“Strategy in Uncertain Times” describes four ‘lenses’, mental models to help expose some of the realities of the new world, and the distinctions and choices that reveal sources of advantage amidst the new complexities we face. Simple and well-defined situations don’t need many lenses – and don’t need us to think about them much – as the variables that matter are known, and the responses automatic. But as circumstances become more complicated, and the interactions between factors introduce more complexity, a wider range of lenses help expose critical choices and new sources of power.
Sign-up to download “Strategy in Uncertain Times” for new perspectives on:
- How and why long-established forecasting, planning and decision-making processes have been growing increasingly out of sync with the accelerating – and inherent – uncertainties of the world, from long before the COVID-19 pandemic. Unpredictability has been getting more and more probable for a long time.
- Four fundamental ways of framing and exposing the nature of changing conditions and surfacing the implications for your planning, forecasting and decision-making capabilities. While not exhaustive, these four models often uncover pivotal opportunities with disproportionate impact.
- Some thought-provokers and conversation-starters to enable you, your team and your organisation to explore the implications of external changes and trigger discussion on your opportunities given your specific context, purpose, culture and strategy. There is no “Post-Pandemic Handbook”, one set of rules are being dismantled while the next set is still emerging. It’s time to ask different questions.
We’ll send you an e-mail with the download link, and we’ll also periodically share ideas, thought-provokers and other useful free stuff. No spam, just insights.
The International Institute of Forecasters
This article was bought to you in collaboration with the International Institue of Forecasters and Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, and appears in the Q3 2021 special edition “A Better Crystal Ball”.
Founded in 1982, the IIF is dedicated to developing and furthering the generation, distribution, and use of knowledge on forecasting through:
- Developing and unifying forecasting as a multidisciplinary field of research drawing on management, behavioral sciences, social sciences, engineering, and other fields.
- Contributing to the professional development of analysts, managers, and policy makers with responsibilities for making and using forecasts in business and government.
- Bridging the gap between theory and practice, with practice helping to set the research agenda and research providing useful results.
- Bring together decision makers, forecasters, and researchers from all countries to improve the quality and usefulness of forecasting.
Check-out here for more on the IIF and Foresight.
The StrataBridge Network
The four ‘lenses’ described in “Strategy in Uncertain Times” form part of the StrataBridge Designing4Growth approach, a framework of frameworks to help organisations navigate transition, change and growth. And we all now face an exceptional transition.
The first imperative to growth is to ‘stay alive’. We all had to scramble to cope with what 2020 threw at us, and it seems that was just a ‘warm-up’ for 2021 and beyond. But now it’s time to develop the capabilities for adaptation and growth against a changing backdrop.
If you want more than survival, more than mediocre performance. If you want to adapt. If you want to grow. If you want to translate bold strategic choices into coherent action and build the organisational muscle to deliver sustainable results and positive impact. We’re here to help.
There’s no well-trodden path through this emerging landscape and the StrataBridge approach is designed to help you create the way forward based on your unique context, purpose, culture and strategy.
To find out more or kick-around ideas, please get in touch…